SpaceX has quickly become one of the most talked-about public listings on Wall Street, but not everyone is convinced the company’s soaring valuation is justified. While investor enthusiasm has pushed expectations higher and some analysts see shares climbing toward $190, Morningstar believes the stock is trading far above its underlying worth.
The debate highlights the growing divide between valuation-focused analysts and investors willing to pay a premium for exposure to one of the world’s most closely watched aerospace and technology companies.
Morningstar Sees Significant Downside Risk
According to a report from The Wall Street Journal, analysts at Morningstar estimate that SpaceX has a fair value of approximately $63 per share.
That figure sits well below the company’s $135 IPO price, implying that current market valuations may be more than double what Morningstar believes the business is worth.
The research firm’s assessment has intensified discussions surrounding the stock’s long-term prospects, especially as demand for SpaceX shares remains exceptionally strong following its market debut.
While Morningstar’s outlook suggests a potential correction over time, other analysts remain considerably more optimistic and have projected that SpaceX shares could eventually reach $190.
Massive Investor Demand Supports the Stock
Despite concerns over valuation, demand for SpaceX shares has remained robust.
According to reports cited by market commentator Walter Bloomberg, the offering attracted more than $350 billion in investor demand, reflecting extraordinary interest from both institutional and retail investors.
The strong demand appeared immediately after the listing. Shares reportedly opened at $150, above the IPO price of $135, before rising to approximately $161.68.
At that level, SpaceX reached an implied market valuation of nearly $1.96 trillion during its Nasdaq debut, placing it among the most valuable companies in the market.
Morningstar acknowledged that such demand could continue supporting the stock price in the near term, even if the firm’s valuation estimate remains significantly lower.
Crypto Markets Join the SpaceX Frenzy
The excitement surrounding SpaceX has extended well beyond traditional stock markets and into the cryptocurrency sector.
Earlier reports revealed that Backpack Securities and Sunrise launched SPCX, a tokenized asset on the Solana blockchain backed by underlying SpaceX shares. Eligible investors can convert the tokens into actual shares, creating an alternative path to gain exposure to the company.
Interest has also surged through Binance-related offerings. Reports indicate that Binance Wallet’s SpaceX IPO campaign attracted approximately $557 million in subscription funds.
The offering reportedly used an indicative token price of 135 USDC before fees and included a 5% underwriting charge, with subscriptions accepted through USDC.
SpaceX Speculation Fuels Crypto Trading Activity
SpaceX-related enthusiasm has also driven significant activity across multiple crypto trading platforms.
According to crypto.news, Velvet’s native token surged more than 1,400% over the past week after the platform promoted synthetic SpaceX exposure through its SPCX pre-IPO market.
Meanwhile, derivatives traders have increasingly turned to SpaceX-linked products on Hyperliquid, where synthetic SPCX perpetual contracts have attracted strong interest.
The platform’s implied valuations reportedly traded above official IPO pricing, helping boost trading volumes and pushing HYPE futures open interest to $2.56 billion.
Fundamentals Will Ultimately Decide the Outcome
While investor excitement has fueled impressive early trading activity, Morningstar argues that long-term performance will depend on business fundamentals rather than market hype.
The firm believes future valuation will ultimately be determined by factors such as revenue growth, profitability, and SpaceX’s ability to meet the high expectations currently embedded in its stock price.
Morningstar also noted that limited share availability may continue supporting prices in the short term. However, as additional shares enter the market, selling pressure could increase and force investors to focus more closely on the company’s financial performance.
If those fundamentals fail to justify current expectations, Morningstar believes SpaceX shares could gradually move closer to its estimated fair value of $63 per share.
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