A US Supreme Court decision expected in the coming months could unlock a massive wave of liquidity for businesses — and potentially give Bitcoin and other risk assets a lift. The case centers on tariffs imposed during the Trump administration, and according to Swiss banking giant UBS, a reversal could result in roughly $140 billion in refunds to importers.
The dispute challenges Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), a law traditionally reserved for foreign policy emergencies, to impose tariffs without direct approval from Congress. Oral arguments took place on November 5, and the final ruling is expected either later this year or in early 2026. If the Court rules that the tariffs were unlawful, the US government may owe importers an amount equal to nearly 8% of the projected 2025 federal deficit — a meaningful sum by any measure.
Liquidity Could Flow Back Into Markets
While such a large payout may introduce complications for fiscal planning, UBS argues that the private sector would feel an immediate boost. Companies receiving refunds would see stronger balance sheets, improved cash flow, and potentially more room to invest or spend. That type of liquidity injection historically favors riskier markets, especially when confidence begins to improve.
A rollback in tariffs would also ease some of the cost pressures that have been elevated over the last several years. Lower import costs could reduce inflationary heat, giving the Federal Reserve more flexibility on rate cuts. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has recently signaled caution on reducing rates too quickly, but cooling price pressures would likely make policymakers more comfortable easing monetary conditions.
Ripple Effect Into Bitcoin and Crypto
Bitcoin has been trading cautiously, pulling back around 12% in October before stabilizing around $103,000 at the time of writing. The market remains highly sensitive to shifts in global liquidity, and analysts say the potential refund would function as a mild form of stimulus — something that has historically boosted appetite for digital assets.
A softer US dollar, should tariff barriers come down, could also create more favorable conditions for cross-border transactions. Stablecoins like USDT and USDC are already processing more than $1 trillion per month in settlement volume. A friendlier trade environment may push even more international transactions onto blockchain rails.
That said, even if the Supreme Court strikes the tariffs, the current administration could attempt to reintroduce them through different legal avenues. Any such maneuver would almost certainly face delays and new legal challenges, meaning the window of increased liquidity could last longer than expected.
For crypto investors, the case serves as a reminder that macro policy shifts in Washington — not just blockchain developments — continue to shape market momentum.
