Kevin O’Leary says Bitcoin bulls hoping for a December rate cut to send crypto prices soaring may need to lower their expectations, as he believes the Federal Reserve’s next move — whether it cuts rates or not — will likely have only a minimal effect on the world’s largest cryptocurrency.
In a recent interview, O’Leary said he isn’t buying into Wall Street’s confidence that the Fed will ease policy before year-end. Market odds may be pointing strongly toward a cut, but he isn’t adjusting his strategies based on that assumption.
“I don’t actually think the Fed’s gonna cut in December,” he said. “I’m not investing that way. I just don’t see it.”
Even if the central bank does pull the trigger on lower rates, O’Leary doesn’t expect much excitement for Bitcoin. Instead, he predicts a mostly quiet market where the asset drifts only about 5% in either direction from where it trades today — far from the explosive volatility many crypto traders hope for.
Market Expectations Tell a Different Story
O’Leary’s skepticism comes as rate-cut hype grows rapidly. CME’s FedWatch Tool currently shows close to 88% odds that policymakers will make a move in December — a sharp reversal from late November, when the probability briefly fell to just 33%. A mix of shifting inflation numbers and supportive comments from top Fed officials — including New York Fed President John Williams — sent traders scrambling back into the easing camp.
Those expectations also follow two consecutive rate cuts earlier this year, fueling speculation that more relief could be on the way through 2025.
Inflation Still a Headache
But O’Leary believes inflation isn’t fading fast enough for the Fed to relax. U.S. annual inflation climbed to 3% in September, the highest reading since January. That figure, he says, keeps the central bank laser-focused on its mandate to maintain price stability and full employment.
“Tighter conditions are still needed,” he suggested, pointing to rising input costs and the mounting effect of tariffs.
Bitcoin Stays Range-Bound
Bitcoin has struggled in recent weeks, slipping 14% over the past month. Normally, cryptocurrencies benefit when interest rates fall, as investors turn away from traditional savings for riskier opportunities like digital assets.
But O’Leary doesn’t see that relationship playing out strongly this time:
“I don’t see it negatively affecting Bitcoin,” he said — nor does he expect it to spark a major rally.
As the Fed’s December meeting approaches, debate continues over the balance between economic growth and inflation control. Just don’t expect Bitcoin to move dramatically while policymakers sort it out.
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