Hyperliquid is taking another big step toward becoming a one-stop shop for crypto derivatives. A new proposal, known as HIP-4, aims to introduce “outcome” contracts — a fresh way to trade predictions and capped-risk bets on future events. The move broadens what traders can do on HyperCore, the protocol’s main trading engine, and signals Hyperliquid’s ambition to go beyond perpetual futures into full-fledged prediction markets.
But while the product roadmap looks bold, the market is already placing a hefty premium on HYPE, Hyperliquid’s native token. Prices are well off last year’s peak, yet valuations and trading activity suggest a lot of optimism is already baked in.
What HIP-4 Brings to the Table
HIP-4 adds outcome-based contracts that are fully collateralized and settle within a fixed range. Think of them as a mix between prediction markets and bounded options. The key difference from traditional leveraged trading is that these products don’t involve liquidations or margin calls. Instead, traders take defined-risk positions on specific outcomes, such as whether a price lands within a certain range by a set date.
According to the proposal, these contracts will be rolled out in USDH, rely on objective settlement sources, and launch once technical development is complete. Permissionless deployment is planned later, depending on user feedback. The goal is to expand HyperCore’s toolkit alongside features like portfolio margin and HyperEVM, making the platform more expressive for complex strategies.
The announcement sparked plenty of buzz across Crypto Twitter. Some analysts called the move bullish, while others suggested Hyperliquid is trying to challenge established prediction platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi by bringing everything under one roof.
HYPE Price: Strong Year, Still Below the Peak
HYPE is currently trading around the $32–$33 range, with roughly $860 million in 24-hour volume. Over the past year, the token is up more than 300%, a massive run by any standard. Even so, it remains around 40% below its all-time high near $59, reached in September 2025.
That gap matters. Despite the strong rebound from last year’s lows, HYPE has struggled to break back into the $40–$50 zone, where sellers have consistently stepped in. The heavy daily turnover — tens of millions of tokens changing hands — points to a market driven largely by speculative and derivatives-related flows.
Valuation vs. Reality
At current levels, HYPE is priced as if Hyperliquid will successfully capture a meaningful slice of massive derivatives and prediction markets. Some traders frame this as fair, given the “trillions” in notional volume across these markets. Others see it as crowded positioning, where upside may be harder to unlock without clear, sustained growth in fees and users.
From a simple risk-reward view, the setup is uneven. Getting back to the all-time high would require an 80%+ rally from here. On the downside, a return to the $20–$25 range — where the token has found support before — would mean a 30%–35% drop. That imbalance makes HYPE a high-beta bet: big potential if HIP-4 delivers real adoption, but vulnerable if trading activity cools or regulatory pressure hits prediction markets.
Outlook: Hype vs. Gravity
In the near term, excitement around HIP-4 could push HYPE toward the high $30s if volumes stay strong. Over a longer horizon, the token is more likely to remain volatile, swinging within a broad range as new products roll out and traders test the platform’s limits.
Hyperliquid’s vision is huge. The question for HYPE holders is whether HIP-4 can turn that vision into durable growth — or whether the token’s rich premium leaves little room for disappointment.
Also Read: Vitalik Pushes Ethereum to Rethink Governance Beyond “Vibes”
