Dogecoin is once again at a critical crossroads, with its price hovering near a long-term technical support that could decide whether the popular memecoin is setting up for another explosive rally—or sliding deeper into a prolonged bear phase.
Over the past month, Dogecoin has traded in a tight range, frustrating both bulls and bears. After briefly climbing to a one-month high during the early January rally, the price pulled back and revisited the lower end of its recent range over the weekend. Since then, it has managed a modest rebound and is now attempting to reclaim an important technical zone that analysts say is key for any sustained recovery.
This period of consolidation has sparked a growing debate among market watchers.
On the bullish side, analyst Bitcoinsensus argues that Dogecoin’s current behavior closely resembles patterns seen in earlier market cycles. According to historical charts, Dogecoin has often gone through long consolidation phases after pulling back from major highs. In past cycles, these quiet periods near strong support eventually gave way to sharp, parabolic rallies when broader market conditions turned favorable. Previous breakouts from Dogecoin’s long-term accumulation zones resulted in significant upside moves, reinforcing the view that patience could once again be rewarded.
Adding to the optimistic outlook, Trader Tardigrade pointed out similarities between Dogecoin’s current weekly structure and its breakout in Q4 2024, which ultimately pushed the token to a multi-year high. In both cases, the pullbacks showed comparable depth, duration, and overall structure, with prices falling sharply from local highs over several weeks. Based on this comparison, Tardigrade believes the recent decline may already be complete, opening the door for a move toward the next major high in the coming weeks.
However, not everyone is convinced that Dogecoin is ready to run.
Market analyst TradingShot offered a more cautious—and potentially bearish—scenario. According to this view, Dogecoin may have entered a fresh bear cycle. The coin is currently holding above its 350-day moving average (MA350), a level that has acted as crucial support since the October 2025 flash crash. Historically, the weekly MA350 has provided a floor during prior bear markets, making it a critical line to watch.
TradingShot warns that if this support finally breaks, Dogecoin could enter a second leg of its bear cycle. That move could result in a deep retracement, with losses similar in scale to those seen in the previous two bear markets. Using sine wave analysis, the analyst suggests Dogecoin’s next major bottom may not form until Q4 2026, a period that could mark a long-term accumulation opportunity for investors.
For now, Dogecoin is trading lower on the weekly timeframe, sitting right at a make-or-break level. Whether the memecoin repeats its history of dramatic rebounds or slips into a deeper downturn may soon be decided by how it reacts to this crucial support zone.
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