The cryptocurrency market pushed higher on January 28, extending its recent rally as investors waited for the US Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate decision. Bitcoin led the move, breaking above the closely watched $90,000 resistance level, while the total market capitalization of all digital assets climbed past $3.03 trillion.
Despite the upbeat price action, growing geopolitical tensions and worrying technical signals are raising questions about how long this rally can last.
Several altcoins posted eye-catching gains during the session. Pippin surged more than 67% in a single day, making it one of the strongest performers in the market. Hyperliquid also continued its impressive run, rising for the third consecutive day to hit $34.28 — its highest level since November. Other notable gainers included Canton, Jupiter, and Quant, reflecting broad-based enthusiasm across the crypto space.
However, this optimism could quickly fade as global risks mount. Former US President Donald Trump warned Iran of a possible military strike as a large armada reportedly arrived in the Middle East. Trump urged Iranian leaders to negotiate, stating that time was running out and reiterating his demand for a deal that would see Iran abandon its nuclear weapons program.
Market sentiment data suggests traders are taking the threat seriously. According to Polymarket, a majority of participants are betting that Trump will attack Iran before the end of the year. The odds of an attack before year-end have climbed to 75%, while the probability of action before March 31 stands at 60%.
Historically, such geopolitical shocks have not been kind to Bitcoin. While often described as “digital gold,” Bitcoin’s reputation as a safe-haven asset has weakened. The cryptocurrency previously fell when Trump threatened to take over Greenland and also dropped following tariff threats against key NATO allies. A potential conflict involving Iran could trigger a similar risk-off reaction across financial markets, including crypto.
This backdrop helps explain why traditional safe-haven assets are outperforming. Gold prices have surged to $5,320, while the Swiss franc has risen by more than 20% over the past 12 months as investors seek stability amid uncertainty.
At the same time, Bitcoin’s technical picture is flashing warning signs. On the daily chart, the price remains below both the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages, as well as the Supertrend indicator. These levels typically act as important signals for trend direction.
More concerning is the formation of a bearish flag pattern — a structure that appears after a sharp drop followed by a short consolidation. This pattern often precedes another strong move to the downside. If confirmed, Bitcoin could fall to the next major support around $80,500, its lowest level from November last year. That would represent a decline of roughly 10% from current levels. A break below that support could open the door to deeper losses, potentially toward last year’s low of $74,400.
For now, the crypto rally is alive — but between geopolitical risks and fragile technicals, the market may be standing on shaky ground.
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