Bitcoin is under renewed pressure this weekend, with growing concerns that the world’s largest cryptocurrency could be heading for a sharper drop. As traders brace for a key interest rate decision from the Bank of Japan (BoJ), some analysts warn that BTC could slide toward the $75,000 level in the days ahead.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is struggling to hold above the psychologically important $90,000 mark. That puts the asset nearly 29% below its peak for the year, highlighting how firmly it remains in bearish territory despite earlier optimism in the market.
Japan’s rate move weighs on sentiment
Much of the current anxiety is tied to the BoJ’s upcoming policy decision on December 19. According to data from Polymarket, traders are pricing in a 98% chance that the central bank will raise interest rates by 5 basis points. The move is widely seen as part of Japan’s efforts to tackle persistent inflation.
The expected rate hike is significant for several reasons. For one, it would underline the BoJ’s independence at a time when Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has publicly favored keeping interest rates low. It also comes shortly after the U.S. Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points, bringing its benchmark range down to 3.50%–3.75%.
This growing policy gap between Japan and the U.S. matters for global markets. Historically, such divergence has led to the unwinding of the yen carry trade, a strategy that has been popular for decades. When that trade reverses, risk assets like Bitcoin often feel the impact.
Past market behavior adds to the caution. Previous BoJ rate hikes have been followed by double-digit percentage drops in Bitcoin’s price. The steepest decline occurred last year, when the bank raised rates for the first time in decades.
Fed outlook offers little relief
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has signaled a more cautious approach going forward, guiding toward just one rate cut in 2026—far fewer than many analysts had anticipated. While former President Donald Trump may attempt to influence future Fed leadership, other policymakers could act as a counterbalance. Notably, three Fed officials dissented at the last meeting, a pattern that could continue into next year.
Technical signals point lower
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s chart is not offering much comfort to bulls. A “death cross” has already formed on the daily timeframe, a classic signal that often precedes further losses.
BTC is also shaping a bearish flag pattern, made up of a sharp downward move followed by a modest upward channel. This setup, combined with the death cross, typically points to continued downside. Adding to the bearish case, Bitcoin remains below both the Ichimoku cloud and the Supertrend indicator, suggesting sellers remain firmly in control.
If the decline continues, analysts are watching the November low around $80,000 as the first key support. A break below that level could open the door to a deeper slide, potentially pushing Bitcoin toward $74,500—the lowest price seen back in April.
For now, all eyes remain on Japan’s central bank and whether its next move triggers another wave of volatility across the crypto market.
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