Bitcoin’s long-familiar rhythm of boom and bust may be changing, according to a new outlook from Fidelity Labs. Instead of the classic four-year pattern built around halving events, Bitcoin could be shifting into what some analysts are calling a “supercycle” — a period marked by extended price highs and milder pullbacks.
The idea was highlighted by Parth Gargava, managing partner at Fidelity Labs, in the firm’s Jan. 9 crypto outlook video for 2026. Gargava doesn’t claim the traditional cycle is gone for good, but he says recent market behavior and structural shifts are strong enough to raise the question seriously.
From halvings to something bigger?
Historically, Bitcoin’s price action has followed a predictable arc. Halvings — the programmed cuts to Bitcoin’s block rewards — have tended to spark powerful bull runs, with peaks arriving roughly 18 months afterward. Gargava pointed to 2016’s halving leading into the December 2017 high, and the 2020 halving preceding the 2021 run, as classic examples of this pattern.
The latest halving in April 2024 has revived the debate: is Bitcoin already past its peak, or are the rules changing? Gargava notes growing arguments that Bitcoin may now be operating in a supercycle environment, defined by “more prolonged highs, longer highs, and shallower dips,” rather than sharp spikes followed by deep crashes.
Why the market may be different this time
Gargava highlights three key forces that could be reshaping Bitcoin’s market structure.
The first is steady demand from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. Unlike purely speculative retail surges, ETF inflows represent continuous institutional participation that can keep capital entering the market even when sentiment cools. That persistence, he suggests, could dampen the traditional post-peak collapse.
Second, the tone of U.S. policy toward crypto is becoming more supportive. Friendlier regulation and clearer rules reduce the “regulatory overhang” that has historically discouraged institutions from participating. Lower uncertainty can attract more large players and intermediaries, further reinforcing long-term demand.
Third, the broader crypto market is maturing. Bitcoin’s relationship with traditional assets, such as the S&P 500 and precious metals, appears to be evolving, with signs of growing decorrelation. According to Gargava, this shift hints that Bitcoin is becoming less dependent on wider risk-asset sentiment and developing its own structural drivers.
2026 may be the turning point
Despite the excitement around the supercycle thesis, Gargava doesn’t declare the four-year halving cycle dead. Instead, he frames the coming years as the real test. By 2026, investors may see whether Bitcoin repeats its familiar pattern — post-halving surge followed by a steep crash — or whether prices remain elevated in a steadier, long-lasting range.
For now, the conclusion is open-ended. But as institutional capital deepens, regulation stabilizes, and crypto continues to mature, the idea of Bitcoin operating in a new kind of cycle is no longer just a fringe narrative — it’s a scenario being seriously weighed by one of the biggest names in finance.
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