Bitcoin’s latest pullback may look worrying at first glance, but according to global research and brokerage firm Bernstein, the story is far from bearish. In fact, analysts at the firm believe the worst of the downturn could already be behind us.
In a note released on March 24, Bernstein said Bitcoin has likely found its cycle bottom and reaffirmed its bold year-end 2026 price target of $150,000. That would mean more than doubling from current levels, with BTC trading around $70,668 — roughly 40% below its all-time high.
A Different Kind of Market Dip
Unlike previous crypto winters, this decline doesn’t come with major cracks in the system. Past cycles saw dramatic collapses — an 84% drop after the 2013 peak, 77% in 2017, and around 70% following the 2021 highs. Compared to those, the current 40% correction appears relatively mild.
Bernstein’s lead analyst Gautam Chhugani described the situation as the “weakest Bitcoin bear case in history.” Instead of structural issues, he sees a temporary loss of investor confidence as the main driver behind the dip.
That’s a key difference. Previous downturns were triggered by major failures across the crypto ecosystem — from exchange collapses to lending crises. This time, those systemic risks are largely absent.
Stronger Foundations This Time
The firm points to a more mature market as a major reason for its optimism. Institutional participation continues to grow, especially through spot Bitcoin ETFs, while more companies are adding BTC to their balance sheets.
Another factor is the shifting political environment in the U.S., which is increasingly seen as supportive of digital assets. Together, these trends suggest a stronger foundation compared to earlier cycles.
Big Players Keep Buying
One of the strongest bullish signals, according to Bernstein, is continued accumulation by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy). The firm now holds about 3.6% of Bitcoin’s total supply, valued at around $53.5 billion.
Even during the recent dip, Strategy has kept buying. In 2026 alone, it raised $7.3 billion to expand its Bitcoin holdings. Bernstein views the company as a high-risk, high-reward proxy for Bitcoin but notes that its balance sheet remains resilient. Only an extreme scenario — BTC falling to $8,000 for several years — would create serious stress.
What On-Chain Data Suggests
Blockchain data also supports the idea that this may be a bottoming phase. Analyst Ali Charts highlighted Bitcoin approaching the 0.8 MVRV ratio — a level historically linked to major rallies.
In past cycles, this zone has preceded massive gains, including 963% in 2017 and over 1,100% in 2020. Meanwhile, CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan noted that declining retail interest often signals accumulation rather than long-term weakness.
Not Everyone Agrees
Still, not all market watchers are convinced. Jan VanEck, CEO of VanEck, recently suggested that 2026 could align with Bitcoin’s typical four-year bear cycle pattern.
Some traders also warn that if BTC fails to hold above $70,000, it could revisit the $60,000 support level — a key zone many are watching closely.
The Bigger Picture
Despite differing opinions, Bernstein remains firmly bullish. Its $150,000 target aligns with other major forecasts, including projections from BSTR President Katherine Dowling and Brad Garlinghouse, who sees Bitcoin potentially reaching $180,000.
Looking even further ahead, Bernstein has set an ambitious long-term target of $1 million by 2033 — a reminder that short-term volatility may just be noise in a much bigger trend.
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