XRP is once again hovering near the lower end of its trading range, raising fresh questions about whether the cryptocurrency is preparing for another sharp move. After weeks of steady selling pressure, traders are now watching a critical support level that could decide XRP’s next direction.
At the time of writing, XRP is trading around $1.34, marking a 4.4% decline over the past 24 hours. The token has struggled to regain momentum after falling significantly from its July 2025 peak of $3.65, leaving it roughly 63% below that high. Broader market uncertainty and risk-off sentiment, partly influenced by geopolitical tensions, continue to weigh on crypto prices.
Futures market shows major cooldown
One of the biggest developments behind XRP’s recent price action is a sharp drop in futures market activity. According to a March 3 analysis by CryptoQuant contributor Amr Taha, total XRP open interest across exchanges has collapsed from $660 million in October 2025 to just $203 million, representing a steep 70% decline within five months.
Binance accounted for most of the reduction, while platforms like Bitfinex and BitMEX now hold only minimal open positions worth a few million dollars.
Open interest reflects the number of active futures contracts in the market. When both price and open interest fall at the same time, it typically signals traders closing positions or forced liquidations. Such events often flush out excessive leverage and reset market conditions.
Interestingly, a similar drop in Binance’s XRP open interest occurred around April 2025. Shortly afterward, XRP established a price bottom near $1.80 before starting a recovery rally — a pattern some traders are now watching closely.
$1.30 becomes the level to watch
From a technical perspective, XRP is currently testing a crucial support zone between $1.30 and $1.35, which has acted as the foundation of its multi-month range. A daily close below $1.30 could weaken the market structure and potentially send the price toward the $1.00–$1.10 region.
For now, XRP remains locked within a consolidation phase, trading between roughly $1.28 and $1.48 over the past week.
The broader trend still favors sellers, as XRP continues forming lower highs and lower lows while trading beneath declining moving averages. Analysts suggest that a meaningful trend reversal would require the token to reclaim the $1.50–$1.60 resistance zone and break above its most recent lower high.
Volatility may be building again
Technical indicators hint that a larger move could be approaching. Bollinger Bands, which widened during the recent sell-off, are beginning to tighten — a signal often seen before volatility expands again. XRP currently sits near the lower band, showing ongoing selling pressure but also the possibility of seller exhaustion.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has bounced from oversold conditions and now sits near 40. Momentum remains weak below the neutral 50 level, though a move above it would suggest stronger buying interest returning.
Liquidity around current price levels adds another layer of uncertainty. A clean break below support could trigger stop-loss orders and accelerate losses, while short covering may fuel a quick rebound if sellers fail to push prices lower.
With XRP sitting at a key technical crossroads, traders expect volatility to increase soon. A daily close above $1.50 could signal recovery momentum, while a drop below $1.30 may open the door to deeper downside in the weeks ahead.
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