Cboe Global Markets is exploring a comeback in binary options, aiming to offer everyday investors a regulated alternative to fast-growing crypto prediction platforms like Polymarket. According to a Wall Street Journal report citing people familiar with the matter, the exchange is in early talks with retail brokerages about relaunching “all-or-nothing” contracts that pay out a fixed amount if a specific outcome happens — and nothing if it doesn’t.
These revamped products, often called fixed-return contracts, would be centrally cleared and fall under the oversight of U.S. regulators such as the SEC or the CFTC. Cboe has emphasized that any potential rollout is still in the early stages and would need to pass strict compliance checks. A company executive told Yahoo Finance that the idea could open a new doorway for individual investors who want simpler ways to engage with options markets, without diving into complex strategies.
The timing is no coincidence. Crypto-based prediction markets have exploded in popularity, with Polymarket emerging as the standout player. The platform now hosts more than 10,000 markets and has processed hundreds of millions of dollars in trading volume. Users can bet on yes-or-no outcomes tied to everything from economic data to major global events.
While critics point out that some of this volume may be inflated by wash trading or double-counting, the platform’s influence is hard to ignore. Independent research cited by outlets including Yahoo Finance and The Defiant suggests Polymarket’s odds can be strikingly accurate — hovering around 90% a month before outcomes are known and climbing as high as 94% in the final hours before resolution.
These markets don’t exist in a vacuum. Crypto traders often treat prediction odds as a real-time signal of sentiment, especially around macroeconomic events or regulatory decisions that can move digital assets. High-conviction bets on topics like ETF approvals or interest rate moves frequently spill over into Bitcoin and Ethereum trading, adding fuel to already volatile markets.
At the moment, Bitcoin is trading near $88,235, with a 24-hour range between roughly $87,549 and $90,476 and about $32.8 billion in daily volume. Ethereum is changing hands around $2,953, with around $23.4 billion in turnover over the past day. Solana, another major token, is hovering near $192, up about 2.7% in the last 24 hours on nearly $9.8 billion in volume.
Cboe’s strategy is to bring some of that speculative energy back into traditional markets. By offering regulated, centrally cleared binary-style contracts focused on financial outcomes — rather than politics or sports — the exchange is betting it can attract traders who like the simplicity and clarity of prediction markets but prefer the safety net of a regulated venue.
If the plan moves forward, the next wave of binary bets may not be happening solely on-chain. Instead, some of that action could return “onshore,” flowing through familiar exchange infrastructure — a sign that Wall Street is paying close attention to what crypto-native platforms have built.
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