Silver’s surge has become one of the most talked-about moves across global markets, and it’s now forcing traders to confront a simple but uncomfortable question: is this a historic squeeze or the final act of a classic blow-off? With prices racing toward the critical $115–$120 per ounce zone, the metal’s parabolic rise is drawing comparisons to past bubbles—while crypto markets watch closely for clues about risk appetite.
The numbers alone explain the drama. Silver has jumped more than 60% in January and is up roughly 275% over the past year, pushing prices to a record near $119 an ounce. That marks its strongest monthly performance since the Hunt brothers’ failed attempt to corner the market in 1979, a period still burned into traders’ memories.
Some seasoned market veterans are already sounding alarms. Former JPMorgan chief strategist Marko Kolanovic says the rally has all the hallmarks of a speculative blow-off. In his view, silver is “almost guaranteed” to fall around 50% within a year, driven more by momentum buying and meme-style trading than by lasting fundamentals. Veteran chartist Peter Brandt echoes the concern, noting that nearly two years of global silver production—over 1.5 billion ounces—has changed hands on exchanges, the heaviest turnover since the 2011 peak.
Still, not everyone believes the run is finished. Citigroup has raised its near-term price target to $150 an ounce, describing silver as “gold on steroids.” The bank points to a rare mix of tight physical supply, aggressive speculative inflows, and thin liquidity. Trading activity reflects that frenzy: the iShares Silver Trust has seen single-day volumes approach $40 billion, nearly rivaling the SPDR S&P 500 ETF.
Supporters of the bull case argue this rally isn’t just hype. The silver market has posted seven straight years of supply deficits, while industrial demand hit record levels in 2025. Solar panel manufacturing alone is expected to consume 120–125 million ounces in 2026, with electric vehicles adding another 70–75 million ounces. On top of that, China has reclassified silver as a strategic material and tightened export licenses from January 1, further restricting supply.
Skeptics remain cautious. HSBC warns that silver is unlikely to become a true safe-haven asset, arguing that once prices began to catch up with gold, momentum and retail participation took over. As Kolanovic has noted, commodity bubbles often collide with physical reality as high prices curb industrial demand, boost recycling, and encourage new or hedged supply.
Crypto traders are paying close attention. Bitcoin is hovering near $88,235, after touching a 24-hour high around $90,476, with roughly $32.8 billion in daily volume. Ethereum is trading close to $2,953 on about $23.4 billion in turnover, while Solana sits near $192, up about 2.7% in the past day on nearly $9.8 billion in volume.
For macro-focused crypto desks, silver’s surge feels familiar: a scarce asset, real policy risk, and a retail-fueled chase into thinning liquidity. Whether silver’s “gold on steroids” phase ends in a sharp unwind—or holds firm on industrial tightness—may shape sentiment well beyond the metals market.
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