Ethereum is back under the spotlight — but not for the reasons long-term holders would like. After failing to bounce strongly from last week’s local low, the second-largest cryptocurrency is now trading inside a multi-month symmetrical triangle, while big investors continue to trim their positions. The setup has many traders asking the same question: is more downside coming?
Over the past month, Ethereum has slipped about 5%, and it’s also down 2.5% for the last seven days. At around $3,115 at the time of writing, ETH remains roughly 37% below the record high it reached in August last year. In other words, the recovery has stalled, and the market is feeling it.
A major reason behind this weakness is whale behavior. On-chain data from Santiment shows a steady decline in wallets that hold between 10,000 and 1 million ETH since mid-December. When these large players sell, it often spooks smaller investors, creating a feedback loop of fear, selling, and falling prices.
Pressure has also come from the ETF side of the market. Numbers from SoSoValue reveal that U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs have seen over $345 million in outflows across the last four trading sessions. With institutions stepping back, retail buyers appear hesitant as well, preferring to stay on the sidelines until the outlook becomes clearer.
Under the hood, network activity isn’t helping sentiment. According to DeFiLlama, total value locked across Ethereum-based DeFi protocols has dropped from about $257 billion in September to nearly $175 billion now. Lower TVL usually points to slower capital inflows and reduced usage — signals that don’t inspire confidence in the broader ecosystem.
Derivative markets tell a similar story. Data from CoinGlass shows Ethereum futures open interest falling from an August peak near $70 billion to about $39 billion today, highlighting waning speculative enthusiasm. Since August, ETH’s price has slipped more than 36%, reinforcing the weaker mood.
From a technical perspective, Ethereum has been carving out a symmetrical triangle on the daily chart since early November. A breakdown beneath the lower boundary of this pattern often signals short-term bearish continuation. There’s also an emerging large inverse cup-and-handle formation, with a key neckline near $2,619.
If ETH loses the psychological $3,000 level, traders will likely focus on the Nov. 21 low around $2,619 as the next major support. A firm move below that could accelerate selling, opening the door toward the $2,121 region.
However, the outlook isn’t sealed. A strong rebound above $3,269 — near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level — would challenge the bearish view and could spark attempts at higher prices. For now, Ethereum sits at a crossroads, with whales, ETF flows, and chart patterns all playing their part in deciding what comes next.
