The U.S. Senate is heading into a decisive moment for crypto regulation next week, as lawmakers prepare to take up a sweeping market-structure bill that could shape how digital assets are overseen for years to come. Whether it actually crosses the finish line, however, remains very much in doubt.
Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott has scheduled a January 15 markup for the legislation, ending months of stalled negotiations and signaling that time is up for behind-the-scenes talks. The bill largely mirrors the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act that cleared the House in July, and it’s designed to finally create a federal framework for crypto in the United States. If the measure survives committee, it moves to the full Senate. If it fails there, observers say its chances for passage this year are slim.
Scott says lawmakers have gone through multiple versions over the last six months and should now be willing to go on the record, even if full agreement hasn’t been reached. “Accountability matters,” he said. Still, it’s unclear whether enough votes exist to move the bill out of committee, let alone secure the 60 votes needed to beat a possible filibuster on the Senate floor.
The sticking points are significant. Lawmakers remain split over how to handle ethics and conflicts of interest, stablecoin yield offerings, quorum requirements for federal regulators, and how decentralized finance (DeFi) should be treated under the law. DeFi is especially controversial: industry supporters want protections for developers and open-source software, while Democrats have flagged risks around sanctions evasion, money laundering, and national security.
The bill—often referred to as the Clarity Act—would split oversight responsibilities between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. It sets criteria to determine when a digital asset is considered a security versus a commodity, an issue that has fueled years of regulatory confusion.
Politics may prove to be as big a hurdle as policy. Several Democrats and some Republicans say the process is being rushed, and election-year dynamics are complicating negotiations. Some Democrats are wary of supporting what could be framed as a win aligned with Donald Trump, especially as midterm elections approach and questions linger about reported crypto-related business ties involving his family. Analysts at TD Cowen have cautioned that as campaign season ramps up, the path for major legislation narrows, making a delay into 2027 increasingly plausible.
Meanwhile, the rest of the world isn’t waiting. Companies such as Coinbase warn that ongoing U.S. gridlock is pushing innovation overseas, pointing to Europe’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework and crypto-friendly regimes in places like the United Arab Emirates. For some in the industry, Scott’s push for a recorded committee vote is overdue. For others, moving forward without strong bipartisan support could backfire and sink the bill entirely.
Whether the upcoming vote becomes a breakthrough or a breaking point, one thing is clear: the U.S. is running out of time to catch up with global crypto regulation, and next week’s markup may determine how long that delay lasts.
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