Filecoin (FIL) is back in the spotlight after posting a strong price jump, with on-chain and technical indicators pointing toward a possible trend reversal. The token climbed sharply on Friday, raising fresh questions among traders about whether a larger breakout could be just around the corner.
According to data from crypto.news, Filecoin surged nearly 20% on Jan. 2, hitting an intraday high of $1.54 before easing slightly to around $1.47 at the time of writing. Even after the pullback, FIL remains almost 25% higher than its December lows. That said, the token is still trading well below its longer-term peak, sitting nearly 60% under its Nov. 8 high of $3.56.
One of the key drivers behind the recent rally appears to be growing anticipation around the upcoming launch of Filecoin Onchain Cloud, which is expected to go live later this month. First announced in December 2025, the initiative marks an important step for the network. It aims to expand Filecoin’s role beyond basic storage, introducing programmable storage and retrieval features. This move could position Filecoin as infrastructure suited for AI-ready data pipelines, strengthening its relevance within the DePIN and artificial intelligence narratives.
Investor behavior is also adding fuel to the bullish case. On-chain data suggests that more FIL holders are choosing to move their tokens off centralized exchanges. According to Nansen, the total balance of Filecoin tokens held on exchanges has dropped by more than 10% over the past 30 days, falling to about 3.91 million FIL. This trend is often interpreted as a sign of confidence, as investors who plan to hold for the long term typically transfer assets into self-custody or cold wallets. Reduced exchange balances can also limit immediate selling pressure, which may help support prices during uptrends.
Derivatives markets are reflecting growing interest as well. Data from CoinGlass shows that Filecoin futures open interest has jumped 38% in the last 24 hours, reaching roughly $210 million. At the same time, the weighted funding rate has turned negative. This combination suggests that while more traders are entering the market, a significant number are positioning on the short side. If FIL continues to move higher, these short positions could come under pressure, potentially triggering a short squeeze that accelerates the rally.
From a technical perspective, the setup looks constructive. On the daily chart, Filecoin has broken out of a descending broadening wedge, a pattern commonly associated with bullish reversals. Such breakouts have historically been followed by sustained upside in many cases. Adding to the positive outlook, FIL is now testing a key zone where previous resistance may flip into support.
Momentum indicators are also improving. The MACD lines are trending upward and nearing a move above the zero line, while the Aroon Up indicator stands at a strong 92.86%, well above the Aroon Down reading. Together, these signals point to strengthening bullish momentum.
Based on the height of the wedge pattern and the breakout level, technical projections suggest Filecoin could target the $2.03 area in the near term — roughly 38% above its current price — if the bullish momentum holds.
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