Final Fed Meeting of 2025: The Federal Reserve is gearing up for its last major event of the year, and investors across both traditional and crypto markets are watching closely. The December FOMC meeting — scheduled for Dec. 9–10 — could set the tone for early 2026, especially with traders nearly fully pricing in another interest rate cut.
According to the Fed’s official calendar, Dec. 9 will be dedicated to internal deliberations. The key announcements come a day later: the policy statement at 2:00 p.m. ET on Dec. 10, followed by Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. The official meeting minutes will arrive on Jan. 8, 2026.
Rate Cut Expectations Heighten Ahead of Powell’s Speech
Market data shows that traders currently see an 87% chance the Fed will trim rates by 25 basis points, lowering the federal funds target to 3.50%–3.75%. The rate currently sits at 3.75%–4.00% after the previous cut in October.
But not everyone on the committee is convinced. Mixed inflation readings and strong GDP numbers have left some Fed officials leaning cautious. That makes the updated economic projections — especially the new dot plot — one of the most anticipated parts of the meeting. If inflation continues its downward trend, analysts say another 50bps of cuts could still be in play for 2026.
The meeting is also expected to formally confirm the end of quantitative tightening. The bond-runoff program wrapped up on Dec. 1, concluding months of $95 billion-per-month reductions in Treasury and mortgage-backed security holdings. Over time, the shift could increase liquidity across financial markets.
Why This Meeting Matters More Than Usual
December’s meeting brings the all-important Summary of Economic Projections, which outlines how policymakers see inflation, growth, and rates evolving. These forecasts often trigger rapid moves in stocks, bonds, currency markets — and yes, crypto.
Because the Fed has been trying to guide the economy toward a soft landing, any shift in tone from Powell could influence how investors position themselves heading into 2026.
Crypto Markets on Alert
The crypto world is especially sensitive to changes in interest rates and liquidity. When borrowing is cheaper and cash becomes more available, riskier assets tend to benefit — including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other major altcoins.
Analysts say a 25bps cut could be a tailwind for digital assets. Some expect Bitcoin could push toward the $95,000–$100,000 range if the Fed stays dovish, with Ethereum and Solana potentially following suit.
A hawkish surprise, however, could spark a quick pullback. Traders warn Bitcoin might revisit the $87,000–$90,000 zone, while altcoins — often more volatile — could feel the pressure even more. Options markets are already flashing expectations for a 20–30% spike in volatility around the announcement, showing just how closely investors are listening for Powell’s every word.
What’s Next?
Whether the Fed delivers a holiday boost or a reality check, the December 10 outcome will likely shape market sentiment well into the new year. For investors navigating stocks, bonds, or crypto, this final meeting of 2025 could set the stage for the first major moves of 2026.
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