Bitcoin is hovering over a crucial technical support level, and the coming days could decide whether the market sees a relief bounce or slips into deeper trouble. With macro uncertainty, cooling ETF flows, and mixed on-chain signals, traders are split on what comes next.
The leading cryptocurrency currently sits on the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, a zone many analysts consider the final major support before a retest of April’s lows. Market analyst Daan Crypto Trades warned that losing this level could “break the high-timeframe structure,” leaving BTC exposed to further downside.
Over the weekend, Bitcoin even dipped below the $92,000 support region, a move analyst Bull Theory described as a typical “leverage flush” in thin weekend trading. Both long and short positions were cleared out before price stabilized, highlighting how fragile the market has become in low-liquidity conditions.
Now, investors are turning their attention to this week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. A rate cut is widely expected, but analysts say the crypto market isn’t reacting as strongly to monetary easing as it once did. Since October’s cut, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has emphasized a data-driven approach rather than signaling the start of a long easing cycle—keeping risk assets unsure of what comes next.
Markus Thielen of 10x Research noted that falling ETF inflows and declining trading volume are limiting upside potential. He added that ongoing volatility compression makes Bitcoin more vulnerable to sudden downside “air pockets.” Even though some bulls point to positive liquidity factors—such as the end of Quantitative Tightening—Thielen said these macro tailwinds don’t matter if the market structure isn’t ready to support a sustained move upward.
Meanwhile, LVRG Research’s Nick Ruck said that upcoming U.S. employment and inflation data could be equally important. Stronger confirmation of continued monetary easing could spark fresh liquidity flows into digital assets.
On-chain metrics are adding another twist. Analysts tracking blockchain activity say Bitcoin’s “liveliness” indicator is rising, even as price struggles. This metric increases when older coins move, hinting that long-term holders—often the market’s most patient participants—are becoming active again. This type of behavior typically appears during early bull-market phases or ahead of major trend reversals.
Supporting this thesis, Bitfinex recently reported clear signs of “seller exhaustion” after weeks of heavy deleveraging and capitulation among short-term traders. According to the exchange, the combination of flushed-out leverage, renewed long-term holder activity, and weakening selling pressure could help Bitcoin stabilize and set the stage for a relief bounce.
For now, Bitcoin remains in a sensitive position: vulnerable to macro headwinds yet showing early signs of renewal beneath the surface. The next major move may arrive sooner than traders expect.
