Hedera (HBAR) has spent months stuck in a steady downtrend, but the token may finally be preparing for a sharp comeback. After weeks of weakening network activity and bearish market pressure, HBAR is now flashing several bullish reversal signals that traders say could trigger a powerful breakout.
The token has already jumped 9% in the past 24 hours, giving investors their first real sign of momentum since mid-summer. Still, HBAR remains down 13% over the past month and more than 50% below its July highs — a reminder of how deep the recent correction has been.
Why Hedera Struggled
HBAR’s slump didn’t happen in isolation. On-chain activity across the Hedera ecosystem has slowed sharply since August. Total value locked (TVL) in Hedera DeFi apps has plunged almost 50% since July, dropping to $157.9 million, according to DeFiLlama. Stablecoin liquidity has thinned even more dramatically, falling from $224.5 million in August to just $72 million.
Macroeconomic pressure hasn’t helped either. Renewed tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump have rattled global markets and weighed on risk assets, including Bitcoin and altcoins like HBAR. That broader weakness spilled over into the Hedera ecosystem, amplifying the decline.
Even the launch of spot HBAR ETFs — which initially fueled excitement — failed to sustain upside momentum. While Solana ETFs have pulled in a massive $510 million in net inflows, HBAR ETFs have attracted only $76 million so far, per SoSoValue. The hype faded quickly, turning the event into another “buy the rumor, sell the news” cycle.
Bullish Signals Start to Build
Despite the rough few months, traders are starting to take fresh positions. HBAR futures open interest climbed 13% over the past day, and the long/short ratio is approaching 1 — both signs that bullish sentiment is returning as more traders bet on a move higher.
On the daily chart, HBAR is also pressing against the upper boundary of a descending parallel channel that has guided its price since July. A breakout above this trendline would be a strong reversal signal, potentially ending months of downward momentum.
Adding to the optimism, HBAR is forming a triple-bottom pattern around $0.123. The neckline sits at $0.228 — a level that represents a possible 98% rally from current prices near $0.14. Technical traders often view triple bottoms as a powerful sign that sellers are losing control.
Momentum indicators support this setup as well. The MACD is close to a bullish crossover, and the RSI has bounced from oversold territory, suggesting buyers are finally returning.
What Could Invalidate the Bullish Case?
For now, the key level to watch is $0.123. A breakdown below that support would invalidate the triple-bottom structure and likely signal more pain ahead.
But as long as HBAR holds above that line and upward pressure continues building, the charts suggest a major rebound may already be underway.
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